Next Stop Dow 11111

[pedonbio]

Lest we forget:

[DruulEmpire]

Bio, I'd love to agree with you, but that graph is complicated by the spike during Bush's second term that racked its way up to 14164 before then plummeting -- basically the bubble blowing up before then bursting.  But I do agree with the graph's overall message.  A spike like that, we didn't need.

(The rise at the end IS all the more impressive because we rose, not just from 7949 on Inauguration Day, but what I call the "O-low" of 6547 rhat came seven weeks later.  This is precisely why I used to root for 13130 -- because that is more than DOUBLE the O-low.)

[DruulEmpire]

Eh, the trading day isn't even half over and already my 11555 floor got gouged.  Heigh ho, up and down, up and down -- sort of like the fortunes of the average GOP Presidential candidate ...

Update: yes, we closed under the floor, at 11547.  Now if we can just stay above 11111 ...

[mastert]

60 minutes ran a story that explained that insider trading by members of congress is pretty much legal. I wonder if they're playing a role in this mess by shorting the market.

[pedonbio]

60 minutes ran a story that explained that insider trading by members of congress is pretty much legal. I wonder if they're playing a role in this mess by shorting the market.

Probably not. Brian Baird tried to get some action on his bill to ban the practice when he was in congress, but couldn't get a committee hearing. Last year he chose not to run, largely because of his disgust with the failure of congress in that and many other areas. He was replaced by a Teabagger, so it's not an improvement.

[DruulEmpire]

Closed today at EXACTLY (well, plus two-thirds of a point) my floor of 11555.  What a tease.

Addendum for Wed 30 Nov: Yet more evidence that my name "Chumbawamba Stagcovery" has traction.  We were at 11231 on Black Friday and now three days later we hit 12045 -- which of course is about where it was two weeks ago.  It gets knocked down, it gets back up again ... it gets knocked down, it gets back up again ...

[DruulEmpire]

And another Chumbawamba moment this morning -- we closed yesterday at 11766, but now, pow, twenty minutes into the new day we soar above 12000.  All very dramatic, but we could really use some traction ...

PS: and we close at 12103 -- which was about where we were two weeks ago.  It's not even a high for this month, for that we'd need 12200.  But there's still time ...

[DruulEmpire]

The nice news: 12294.00, a new high, not only for the month but for nearly the past five months.

The tough news: to set a new high for the year we would need to hit the 12800s in just a few days ...

[pedonbio]

The nice news: 12294.00, a new high, not only for the month but for nearly the past five months.

The tough news: to set a new high for the year we would need to hit the 12800s in just a few days ...

...and I don't think there will be much volume next week. Of course, I've been wrong before.

[DruulEmpire]

Bio was correct.  (By the way, guy, thanks for putting me onto the Dunning-Kruger effect, that clears up a LOT.)  Last week saw the high for this month.  When the year's all-time high was back in April, you know there's some dithering going on.

So we end today at 12217, which means we could use about 790 points over ten months to fulfill what may be my last stab at prediction.  If January ends with 12300, maybe I'll feel hopeful.

[pedonbio]

Yes, Dunning-Kruger was the key for me understanding a lot of things...

Prosperous New Year!

[DruulEmpire]

And in keeping with bio's wish, we have kicked off the new year with 12397.  From my standpoint, just about 600 points left to go in ten months ... although the real question is whether we'll still even be above 12300 come month's end.

[pedonbio]

There is an old superstition that the first trading day of the year "sets the tone" for the whole year. I don't know; I'm pretty much out of the market. Maybe I should get back in.

P.s.--I did follow my own advice about gold--When it gets discussed by mainstream folks, sell. I sold the last of mine (actually, gold mining stock) a year ago. We shall see.

[SwitcherX]

"Buy the rumor, sell the news"

-- Richard Dennis

[DruulEmpire]

I caught it hitting an intra-day high of 12818 just now.  This sort of thing could elevate us to closing levels not seen since May 2008 -- and if we could rise beyond 12876, that would be a nearly four year high for all levels, intra-day as well as closing, period.  Last time we were at this level we were on our way down -- hopefully this is all more or less in the opposite direction ...

[DruulEmpire]

In this opening quarter hour it hit 12825 -- let's see if it can retain any of that.

addendum: in other news the NASDAQ ascends above 2900 for an 11-year high -- and we just closed out at 12862, just fourteen points shy of rising beyond a 12-month high to easily achieve a three-year high.  Where was a week like this last year?  No matter, just glad it arrived.  Since May 2008 reached as high as 13028, however, all discussion of reaching 13000 remains in the shadow of that month.

[DruulEmpire]

A very interesting afternoon -- the intra-day just now hit 12963, finally exceeding the 12960 I wanted for way back on Halloween.  I rather doubt we'll hit 13000 -- though if that looks possible, I've got to think RIGHT NOW about raising my target or making it sooner -- but I'll be back inside of an hour ...

wrap-up: and we closed at 12949.  Monday will bear close watching ...

[DruulEmpire]

I said Monday, huh?  Some patriotic follower of Presidents' Day that makes me ...

So far as the 13000 level is concerned, this week is being a real tease -- but with five minutes left to go, I give up, I'm boosting the Halloween 2012 target from 13000 to 13130.

Don't make me regret this, Dow ...

V to everyone below: just remember, if we do indeed add at least 146 points to yesterday's close (which is itself 767 points above the close at the end of last year) in the next eight months, you heard it here first.

also: Kit, I hear you, but of all the factors that went into 2007-8 I rate "peak oil" news relatively low.  That said, it is something to watch, as I don't think we have another 50 years of relatively smooth sailing at all.  But heck, right now I 'm just looking at the next 50 days or so.

[mastert]

Ugggghhhh Druul...that's like mentioning the a pitcher going for a no-hitter in the 8th inning

[Bad Kitty]

Honestly, I'm worried that things will not work out so well as you hope.

I am kinda expecting the price of oil to do something similar to what happened in 2008 as we head into summer. Everyone talks about bank deregulation, and globalized economic issues... but "peak oil" was a factor in the crash in 2008. Well, more accurately, speculation on the impending reality of peak oil. But I think it's going to get less speculative now. With a US embargo on iranian oil, and a less serious european embargo as well, I forsee peak oil rearing it's ugly head again as we head into higher consumption months this year.

The 2008 recession nuked consumption of oil, which really staved off peak oil for a little while. But it's not an issue that will go away. Even with reduced consumption, and increased govt. approval of things like frakking and offshore drilling in previously disallowed areas, the rate of global oil production is still slipping downward, towards it's meeting point with the rate of consumption.

It's not an issue of running out of oil, that's a good 50 years off still... But, bear in mind that in 50 years, that last gallon of gas will cost a million dollars. The thing with peak oil, is to see a situation where the max capacity of global oil production, falls to a point below the level of global oil consumption. When (not 'if') that happens, the market will shift from a buyers market for oil, to a sellers market for oil, as consumers must leverage their wealth against other consumers' wealth to get the oil they want.

Imagine a room with 100 people selling a snowcone, and 99 people buying a snowcone... snowcones are fairly cheap, because nobody wants to be the one seller who doesn't close the deal. Now imagine a room with 99 people selling a snowcone, and 100 people buying snowcones... the whole dynamic is turned inside out. Of course people don't NEED a snowcone, and nobody NEEDS to sell a snowcone that badly... but if selling some oil is vital to one nation's economy, and buying some oil is vital to another nation's economy... then in a buyer's market, the competition to sell the oil is fierce. But in a sellers market, the competition to buy the oil will be fierce instead. It's gonna do really bad things to the price of petrol energy, and really soon. I would think that without Iran issues, it might not hit till 2013, but with the embargo (which basically changes the shape of the room where snowcones are sold), oil supply is gonna get really close to oil demand, and may fall below it.

So... yeah. I'd buy oil as a hedge. Or just buy oil flat out. If the price of oil spikes, all the other markets will take a noticeable dip (except for recession-loving items, like gold, walmart, ramen noodles, etc). I could be wrong about it getting 'severe' this summer. but i'm sure there will be at least some swell in oil prices, the northern hemisphere simply burns more oil in summer, and oil prices are already kinda 'bling' right now, when consumption is lower.


But I've been really focused on just gold, oil, and money markets. black & yellow gold have been my bread & butter, and the money markets are really just kind of a sliding reference to truly quantify how my bread & butter are doing I haven't followed other aspects of the market that closely. I seem to do really well moving money around in those particular markets though.

[pedonbio]

I dunno. The price of gas is purely a speculative bubble this time--Supply is way up into surplus and demand is down from a year ago. Usually these things spike for a while, then collapse faster than it rose. Unfortunately, the retail prices drops a lot more slowly than the wholesale price.

[Bad Kitty]

I dunno. The price of gas is purely a speculative bubble this time--Supply is way up into surplus and demand is down from a year ago. Usually these things spike for a while, then collapse faster than it rose. Unfortunately, the retail prices drops a lot more slowly than the wholesale price.

yeah, i don't see any risk of global peak oil in 2012, but embargos could make things bad here. 2013 will be more interesting (depending on demand of course). we've never pumped as much oil as we did in 2006 though. we're kinda hiding "peak oil" inside a recession of reduced consumption.

[DruulEmpire]

Today closed at 13005 -- three trading days after I decided to raise my target above 13000.

And ... scene.

(Now all I need is another 125 points in the next eight months ... )

V to Kit below: well, basically ...

(speaking of which, US Census says our population will soon hit 313,131,313)

[Bad Kitty]

going for 13,131?

before 12-21-2012?

[pedonbio]

going for 13,131?

before 12-21-2012?

Yes. It has been achieved. Now Druul speculates that it may stay above 13,131 for the rest of the year. He is an optimist.

[DruulEmpire]

Let's put it this way -- I'm changing my original bet of "achieving 13130 by October's end" (since that's already happened with today's close of 13177) to "staying at or above 13130 by October's end."

It's not exactly optimism, since I figure I could very easily get kicked in the teeth yet again.  It's just something I'd like to see.

[DruulEmpire]

Well, this month thus far sure has sucked, huh?

Neo-con economic advisors get us both ways: even if and when we can free our own economy from them, we still have to worry about their impact on economies overseas.