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andrat2000

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Re: MERGED: The Politics Thread
« Reply #6285 on: September 16, 2017, 03:01:26 PM »
To clarify any comparisons, we in the U.S. do not live in a democracy. We live in a democratic republic. This does not guarantee protection of the weak, but it gives us means of ameriorating simple majority rule. (As does the civil service. Bureaucracy can be a very good thing.)

It is still democratic. And any democracy has room for improvements. And what some people actually think is very democratic: referendum after referendum after referendum - for each and everything. It won't work. The results of referendum are erratic. To a point it can be damaging beyond repair. Take the Brexit.

Extremist and populistic parties like referendum when they are not in responsibility or they are sure they can manipulate the people and /or the result. Brexit is an example. It didn't fit at all in what UK really needed for continuity. It now blocks the government, completely. Usually what extremist parties need to grow. For the moment how the Brexit (doesn't) work it is bad for UKIP. But what if the May government really fails with the soft Brexit, the hard Brexit will come and it will damage British economy beyond believe. Then the time for UKIP and other extremists is coming.

Or referendum in Hungary. The government made the question in their favour. They still lost the poll, but then they found a lot of arguements why they won and still do the changes to the constitution damaging fundamentals of the Hungarian courts.

Ah right in spring 2015 he did an inofficial referendum. He was sending out 8 Millon questionaires to Hungarian citizen with suggestive question and if you agree make your cross. He used this result as argument for things he wanted to change.

Why does Germany have no referendum on federal level after WW II anymore? It is as simple as that that the extremists after WW I blocked the parliament the executive with these kind of referendum throwing them into discrepancy of what is actually needed. This referedum was one of the reasons Adolf Hitler had success.

Democracy by the grass root is not always good.

I think there are already other ideas out there to strengthen democracy. Or to get more indepent from elections.
One of it to get rid of representatives that want to be re-elected and that loose themselves in dependencies to parties or similar situations.
The suggested solution is that a number of people are drawn by random and not elected. Then they have to orgenize themselves in parliament or executive. This prevents extremistic parties from meddling with elections invluencing voters. etc. ...
I heared somewher in Ireland this procedure is or was tested. Can't exactly remember when and where I read it.

Very good example. Boris Johnson on of the desaster architects / captains of the BREXIT referendum. During the election campaign he was lying and telling the british people that the UK can safe weekly 350 Mio. Euro for the NHS, when having a Brexit. After the poll was successful with the BREXIT as result, a lot of pro BREXIT campaign staff admited these 350 Mio Euro number was a balantant lie.

Now that he sees a chance to replace British Prime Minister May he is back to his lie. It was once successful, he tries it again. He manipulates people to believe in admited alternative facts / FAKE news / LIES. And he uses the same trivia language like Trump now to describe the UK future ... Well if it is true like some people said and Boris Johnson is an alcoholic, then we know where this all comes from.

The british fell for a liar / liars once in a referendum and they would again.

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andrat2000

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Re: MERGED: The Politics Thread
« Reply #6286 on: September 18, 2017, 05:38:03 PM »
Just to add something to my argumentations of the previous days.


Dumb fuck populists, especially when they are nationalistic!



If you want to know how dumb populists, especially nationalistic populists are you just need to look to Spain.
The catalan region government leaded by populistec catalan-nationalistic seperatists announced begin of September a referendum for the seperation on October, 1st.

So far not even the voters got an official notice. The constitutional court of spain declared the referendum illegal.
A seperation of Catalonia would mean a new nation is formed and they would have to request a new membership to the EU with all the negotiations connected. But more important all EU nations have to accept. And Spain would certainly raise their veto against it.

So this is what sometimes democracy by the roots via referendum does. Throw a whole country into chaos for satifying a few egoistic populist leaders. A 10-20 year process shouldn't be a problem. But what these populists want is self-execution.

No no referendum isn't always good. Especially when used for manipulation of the citizen.

Well also the catalans elected these regional leaders. So everything dumb should be done just because they got elected?

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TheZookie007

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Re: MERGED: The Politics Thread
« Reply #6287 on: September 19, 2017, 06:43:45 AM »
Today in "Stupid Watergate":

The FBI obtained warrants to tap Paul Manafort's phones in 2014, and had the wiretaps extended into 2017. As Rep. Ted Lieu noted, "This means a federal judge reviewed evidence & concluded there was probable cause Manafort engaged in crimes or was [an] agent of [a] foreign power." The no-knock warrant that was granted in July 2017 was done so because federal prosecutors were afraid that Manafort would destroy incriminating evidence.

Speaking of populists/nationalists, the son of the current occupant of the White House has, inexplicably, requested that his Secret Service protection be dropped. Kellyanne Conway also requested that her protection be dropped. These actions both happening on the same day as the revelation of the Manafort tapes leads me to conclude that perhaps both people are afraid they may be next on the chopping block.



"When your city is French in origin, and your Mayor and Governor are Democrats, and those most affected by this natural disaster are Black, don't expect much help from Bush." -- Left of Y'all (and the link works now too! )

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TheZookie007

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Re: MERGED: The Politics Thread
« Reply #6288 on: September 19, 2017, 07:02:10 AM »
The first half of a looooong Twitter thread by Seth Abramson:

Quote


MAJOR BREAKING NEWS via THE NEW YORK TIMES: Special Counsel Mueller Will Indict Trump Campaign Manager Paul Manafort

2/ The estimated timeline for an indictment under these specific circumstances (direct notice of future indictment to target): 15 to 60 days

3/ Reasons for this sort of notice include telling suspect to stay in jurisdiction; initiating CI talks; preventing destruction of evidence.

4/ So the first indictment will come in the window I and other lawyers predicted when Mueller was appointed: 3 to 6 months post-appointment.

5/ This would (a) explain why the FISA warrant story involving Manafort leaked today, and (b) seem to answer "Who will be indicted first?"

6/ I'm here embedding my earlier thread on CNN's breaking news (on Manafort) into this longer more important thread:

7/ That the FBI got a FISA warrant on a presidential campaign's Manager and then got it *renewed* means they had something good on Manafort.

8/ What we know of the Manafort investigation suggests Mueller has the charges to possibly put Manafort away for life. And that will be key.

9/ If Paul Manafort is looking at the rest of his life in a federal prison, the chances that he flips on President Trump rise exponentially.

10/ I said in my recent AMA that Mueller will need two or more flips to get Trump. Carl Bernstein implied tonight Rick Dearborn could flip.

11/ Flynn building a seven-figure/seven-person legal team suggests he plans to be a loyal soldier and not flip. *Or* Mueller won't offer it.

12/ Kushner would be a top flip target but he's family; turning on Trump would end his marriage. And he may be *willing* to do a brief bid.

13/ We can't forget that Kushner's father—his biological father—went to prison. So Jared may have a higher tolerance for the idea than most.

14/ Carter Page was interviewed by the FBI more hours (10) than anyone. But he appears to be a Russophile ideologue—so, less likely to flip.

15/ Given tonight's FISA news we don't know if Mueller's plan is to indict Manafort for money laundering *or* something closer to espionage.

16/ But understand that federal prosecutors don't bluster. If Mueller's agents told Manafort he will be indicted, Manafort will be indicted.

17/ Expect a line from Republicans to the effect of, "Well, we knew this was coming for Paul, and this may have *nothing* to do with Trump."

18/ Carl Bernstein is wrong to say the indictment could be a FARA charge. A prosecutor would wait to threaten indictment until he had more.

19/ Mueller's pre-dawn raid, grand jury interview of Manafort's spox, and large money laundering prosecutor team say this is more than FARA.

20/ That said, when prosecutors indict, they indict on *all* they have at the time. So Manafort will face FARA and likely other charges too.

21/ Remember, one reason to charge Manafort first is to get him to talk about Trump. He won't do that unless he's facing the *maximum* pain.

22/ So any criminal lawyer will say, don't expect rinky-dink charges on Manafort. He'll be hammered—and Mueller will add more as he gets it.

23/ Manafort is a hard man—perhaps he won't flip. But by throwing the book at him, Mueller sends a message to other Trump aides: *flip now*.

24/ There's no doubt Mueller is being aggressive. And no doubt we've seen only a fraction of what *he* has—so he must have seen *bad stuff*.

25/ When I say all is happening on the timeline I predicted, I only say it to say things are proceeding just as *any* attorney would expect.

26/ Any experienced criminal attorney will say you don't see this much smoke without fire—and the pace the fire is unfolding is anticipated.

27/ Poor person in a state court? Yes—things would go faster. Bringing down a POTUS via a complex federal probe? This is just how that goes.

28/ Trump WILL be impeached. I say that not as a Dem but an experienced criminal lawyer and someone who's researched this case for 9 months...



Looks ominous.
« Last Edit: September 19, 2017, 07:05:50 AM by TheZookie007 »
"When your city is French in origin, and your Mayor and Governor are Democrats, and those most affected by this natural disaster are Black, don't expect much help from Bush." -- Left of Y'all (and the link works now too! )

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andrat2000

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Re: MERGED: The Politics Thread
« Reply #6289 on: September 19, 2017, 01:12:16 PM »

Speaking of populists/nationalists, the son of the current occupant of the White House has, inexplicably, requested that his Secret Service protection be dropped. Kellyanne Conway also requested that her protection be dropped. These actions both happening on the same day as the revelation of the Manafort tapes leads me to conclude that perhaps both people are afraid they may be next on the chopping block.

Do you think they believe the secret service is placing the wire taps for the FBI? Or let's say the secret service intentionally overseeing the FBI wire taps?

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TheZookie007

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Re: MERGED: The Politics Thread
« Reply #6290 on: September 20, 2017, 01:06:58 AM »

Do you think they believe the secret service is placing the wire taps for the FBI? Or let's say the secret service intentionally overseeing the FBI wire taps?

Neither. That's not how it works. The Secret Service isn't in the business of domestic surveillance in order to gather evidence of criminal activity on the part of the surveiled. The FBI is under the U.S. Department of Justice, whereas the United States Secret Service since 2003 has been under the U.S. Department of Homeland Security. The Secret Service started in 1865 and was under the U.S. Department of the Treasury. Its original function was to fight against counterfeiters of US currency (which was rampant in the post-civil war era). It wasn't until the 1901 assassination of President William McKinley that Congress also directed the Secret Service to begin protecting the President of the United States.
"When your city is French in origin, and your Mayor and Governor are Democrats, and those most affected by this natural disaster are Black, don't expect much help from Bush." -- Left of Y'all (and the link works now too! )

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andrat2000

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Re: MERGED: The Politics Thread
« Reply #6291 on: September 20, 2017, 01:56:51 PM »

Do you think they believe the secret service is placing the wire taps for the FBI? Or let's say the secret service intentionally overseeing the FBI wire taps?

Neither. That's not how it works. The Secret Service isn't in the business of domestic surveillance in order to gather evidence of criminal activity on the part of the surveiled. The FBI is under the U.S. Department of Justice, whereas the United States Secret Service since 2003 has been under the U.S. Department of Homeland Security. The Secret Service started in 1865 and was under the U.S. Department of the Treasury. Its original function was to fight against counterfeiters of US currency (which was rampant in the post-civil war era). It wasn't until the 1901 assassination of President William McKinley that Congress also directed the Secret Service to begin protecting the President of the United States.

But why would they request dropping it, other than fear that the Secret Service isn't protecting them enough. Isn't the secret service responsible that noone is spying the president and his supporting tribe?

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TheZookie007

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Re: MERGED: The Politics Thread
« Reply #6292 on: September 21, 2017, 03:09:40 AM »

But why would they request dropping it, other than fear that the Secret Service isn't protecting them enough. Isn't the secret service responsible that noone is spying the president and his supporting tribe?

Sorta-kinda -- anti-surveillance measures are mainly the bailiwick of other three-letter agencies :)

As for why they would request dropping their protection, I don't know. There's possibilities that are benign (for instance, they want to help the USSS save money) and possibilties that are less-than-benign (for instance, since the USSS is always with them, they are potentially-subpoenable witnesses against them in any federal investigation).
"When your city is French in origin, and your Mayor and Governor are Democrats, and those most affected by this natural disaster are Black, don't expect much help from Bush." -- Left of Y'all (and the link works now too! )

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andrat2000

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Re: MERGED: The Politics Thread
« Reply #6293 on: September 21, 2017, 04:25:12 AM »
Btw. the most ridiculous thing the Catalan populist nationalist separatists want. 2 days after a successful referendum they already want to be out of Spain and completed the independence.

A typical example of a misuse of a referendum. And the common citizens are falling for it.

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andrat2000

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Re: MERGED: The Politics Thread
« Reply #6294 on: September 24, 2017, 07:40:43 PM »
A really sad day for the world.

The NAZI Germany is back. Approximately 94 NAZI representatives voted into the German parliament by German Nazi citizens.
« Last Edit: September 25, 2017, 06:17:54 AM by andrat2000 »

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TheZookie007

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Re: MERGED: The Politics Thread
« Reply #6295 on: September 24, 2017, 09:59:44 PM »
Those who forget the past...

And yet, I have faith that the leader of the free world* will be able to hold the line and keep these Nazis from taking over Germany.


* i.e. Angela Merkel
"When your city is French in origin, and your Mayor and Governor are Democrats, and those most affected by this natural disaster are Black, don't expect much help from Bush." -- Left of Y'all (and the link works now too! )

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andrat2000

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Re: MERGED: The Politics Thread
« Reply #6296 on: September 25, 2017, 04:27:46 AM »
Those who forget the past...

And yet, I have faith that the leader of the free world* will be able to hold the line and keep these Nazis from taking over Germany.


* i.e. Angela Merkel

The problem is the German Nazis feel and have so much support from Trumpel and the extremist alt-right US Nazis. Trumpel is also their new leader.

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Hiram

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Re: MERGED: The Politics Thread
« Reply #6297 on: September 25, 2017, 08:12:42 AM »
The NAZI Germany is back.
You reap what you sow.
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Hiram

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Re: MERGED: The Politics Thread
« Reply #6298 on: September 25, 2017, 08:17:36 AM »
A typical example of a misuse of a referendum. And the common citizens are falling for it.
I agree, referendums aren't the best way find solutions.  Is was a bad idea to have the Brexit vote for instance. But then again - hard to disagree with democracy.
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TheZookie007

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Re: MERGED: The Politics Thread
« Reply #6299 on: September 25, 2017, 08:21:16 AM »
I think it was Churchill who said something about democracy being the worst form of government, until compared to the alternatives. Or something like that.

We 'Muricans kicked the Nazis' asses once before...and we can do it again! I hope.
"When your city is French in origin, and your Mayor and Governor are Democrats, and those most affected by this natural disaster are Black, don't expect much help from Bush." -- Left of Y'all (and the link works now too! )