[DruulEmpire]

Well, goody, because guess what, you're in for some more.

Seeing that it's already January 4 and we've already resuscitated to 13435, the idea that we can only gain another 230 points for the entire year before us doesn't set right with me.  If I could argue for any one particular crisis kicking in at this particular time -- and it's not like I don't see potential hazards on the horizon -- I'd acquiesce, but I'm going to push a little.  New targets:

1. For 2013, 13900 or higher.

2. For 2014, 14400 or higher.

3. For 2015, 14941 or higher.  (Note that I still get to have my palindrome, in honor of the number 2,015 being binary 11111011111, but it's based on the first three squares: 1, 4, 9.)

4. For October 27, 2016, 15555 or higher.

And I still dread 16384 a little.

All right.  My grave's been dug.  May it get derisively danced on in the years ahead.

[DruulEmpire]

Just popping back in to note that, since the Dow closed out today at 13712, I'm feeling glad that I made my decision here just eighteen days ago to set a high for 2013 at 13900 rather than 13667.

That said, I'm still not sure how good I would feel about our surpassing the historic high of 14164 (thus far) in 2013 rather than 2014.  I've been whacked down so many times here over the years that it would begin to feel a little too good to be true.  Then again, if the GOP's Sabotage = Leadership plan hangs in there, I'm sure we can be in for some more exciting tumbles.

I've seen one left-of-center source claim that the economy has "soared" under Obama.  I don't see that at all.  I think it's far more accurate to say that the economy has recuperated under Obama.  If you bust your leg, go to the hospital, and your leg heals up, okay, you're getting around better than you did just a little while ago, but you ain't "soaring."  In fact, I think I get most worried now if and when the economy ever does decide to "soar," because that always seems to be connected to some kind of bubble, and then the bubble breaks and leaves a huge mess and eh, I don't see that it's worth it.

So I'm really hoping for an upward crawl, either that or a lot of swings up and down adding up to the equivalent of an upward crawl.  But if we do hit or surpass 13900 this year -- you heard it here first.

[DruulEmpire]

Didn't I tell you?  Today's close was 13954, so to my score from November 1 of last year we can add:

13900: exceeded

But, no, I won't be bumping the remaining predictions any higher.  Frankly, I'm nervous.  We're sailing out of the 13000s, and the last time we did, everything exploded.  It's still all feeling jittery to me.  Will one of the European nations throw another tantrum?  For that matter, how many tantrums are left in our own GOP?  You live through enough pogroms, you get to expecting that even in America the Tsar will raid your village.  (I'm not Jewish, but my neighborhood is very heavily so, it kind of rubs off a little.)  I just don't feel daring enough to raise my predictions any higher.  Which I hope means their getting exceeded is assured.

And I still worry about 16384.      

[pedonbio]

Old geezers like me don't look for short-term stuff, and I consider a year to be short-term, but Democratic presidents have historically brought up markets, and Republican presidents historically bring down markets, so I will continue my efforts to maintain up markets.

[DruulEmpire]

Mmm, but these are unusual times, bio, now we're getting sold sabotage as standard operating procedure.

What are the odds that my 2014 projection, 14400, may actually be days away?  Today was wild, starting off with an intra-day high of 14081, bringing us within ninety points of a new all-time high -- but now, whoosh, we're down nearly 300 points from that.  In my last post I continued to worry over Europe, and I was right.  If we ever do see some internationalist body with executive power sometime in this century, it may seek simply to keep any one nation from fucking up the global economy for everyone else ...

[pedonbio]

You've found an easy mark for your belief here, Druul. I have no idea how it will come about, but the Greek and Spanish examples might6 give us an example. And as a response we have the German and Icelandic alternatives. For those who ignore European economic news, under the Icelandic model, bankers go to jail. Unfortunately, the U.S. has elected to follow the German model.

[gOOber]

Stocks soared for a second day to finish near session highs Wednesday, with the Dow within less than 100 points of an all-time closing high, boosted by upbeat earnings and economic reports and as Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke reaffirmed his support of the central bank's stimulus policy.

"It would not be shocking to see a final push through, but I want to point out that seasonality is not necessarily on our side, which keeps us from going pedal to the medal," said Josh Brown, financial advisor at Fusion Analytics. "We had a very similar market environment in early 2011 and last year. So it would not shock me to see a sprint close to the highs of the year, have our typical pullback, and when people realize that sequestration is not the end of the world, we could resume. That would be a better moment to load on new longs."

[DruulEmpire]

gOOb, thanks.  Yes, a new record high as early as February 2013 was not to be, as today's intra-day hit 14149 -- but I thought I would make a quick historical note of that here, just in case everything goes kerflooey.

[gOOber]

The Dow Jones industrial average, which measures the performance of 30 blue-chip companies, rose more than 120 points in morning trading on Tuesday, surpassing its previous record close of 14,164.53, which it achieved nearly five and a half years ago, as well as its record intraday high, set around the same time, of 14,198.10.

Of course, a few things have happened since October 2007. The housing market collapsed, the financial system went into meltdown, the European Union started to fray and politicians dragged the United States through an on-off-on-again fiscal imbroglio.

 But stocks managed to shrug it all off.

[DruulEmpire]

Imbroglio?  Imbroglio, thou sayest!?  Well, la dee da!

Wow, gOOb is really getting into this.  But he makes a point which I keep trying to make here but which may get overshadowed by all the more obviously political arguments -- mainly, that the economy itself keeps struggling along, almost spiting this, that or the other grand factor.  I don't buy any Ayn Rand thesis that some mushy ideology will make everyone weaken and give up and walk away.  The struggle remains very much alive in America, and the Dow reflects some of that.

In a way, this brings us full circle from the beginning of this thread, when I was marveling, rather perversely, at how we were plummeting from what was once our all-time close of 14164.  Today closed at 14253.77, with an intraday of 14286.  (14253 ... an interesting jumble of 12345.)

And now ... how badly can we screw this up?  Or can we keep struggling?

The tone feels different than before.  I remember people enjoying a rising Dow in the Nineties, and 2007 felt good, though maybe people felt like we had earned it (when we really hadn't) from 9-11.  Does anyone still cheer this anymore, or have we gotten too cynical?  Well, I still cheer it.  Some features of personal finance will improve because of this.  That's all I ever really wanted.

[pedonbio]

Druul, I would love to wax eloquent about what I see as the political motivations of the stock exchange, but that might bore you, and it would certainly bore me. The NYSE has done me great benefits and has crushed my heart so often that I have nothing to do but love the bitch. She moves from her own purposes, and we can only guess at what moves her, but I would suggest two possibilities. Despite the fact that most brokers and many traders are rock-ribbed Republicans, they do not ignore the simple fact that Democratic presidents have been very, very good for the market since at least the American Civil War; the re-election of President Obama is a big plus for the market and for the economy. The other piece of good news is that she loves certainty and hates uncertainty; the certainty now is that the political Sturm und Drang of the last two years will continue, which will reduce the natural effervescence of our recent succession of economic bubbles. Bad for the economy, bad for folks in the "bottom" 70%, great for the stock market.

In short, she reminds me of my second ex-wife--She fucks you without mercy, and thirty years later you still remember her fondly.

[DruulEmpire]

Bio, I knew an 18th page of this thread was coming, and I think you've started it out quite ideally.  I find "Dow as problematic woman" to be a strangely compelling metaphor, a little like the whole Jaguar campaign featured recently on "Mad Men."  The Dow reminds me a little of my last girlfriend, a stripper 25 years my junior.  Magnificent rewards to look back on fondly, yet overall you feel shut out cold.  I think the metaphor applies.  She and I would barely agree on how to define "life," and yet in some mystical way, so long as she's doing well, then America and all its crazy aspirations are doing reasonably well.

I also find myself recommending an article up today by one Brett Arends, who points out that the "magic" of the Dow is largely as a showcase for the occasional boom, and that you can have a growing economy without the Dow necessarily going anywhere for a long time.

Anyhow, since we are right now this morning still within 147 points of the ceiling I set for 2014 -- that's right, next year -- I feel obliged to try to raise the roof one more time.  Therefore:

by the end of 2014: 14900 or higher
by the end of 2015: 15551 or higher
by October 27, 2016: 16000 or higher

My wariness towards 16384 continues.

A final word.  Maybe I shouldn't feel any kind of political vindication -- ah, but I do.  This Saturday is March 9.  That's the fourth anniversary of the "O-low," the time seven weeks into Obama's first term that the Dow closed down at 6547.  If you can't remember those days, look back over the first pages of this thread, there was a certain giddy nihilistic fun to them.  Now compare where we stand today.  That's more than double, that's a whole new 117%.

Bio is correct, concerning the Presidency.  Many said it couldn't, wouldn't, be done.  It got done.  Just like the boom during Clinton got done.  It happened.  My advice: live with it, already.

Yes, we can always stand to kick our unemployment thread back up.  And no, the economy is not "soaring."  We put ourselves in the hospital, we convalesced, we're hobbling back out.  It's rickety, and can come apart for any number of reasons.  Nor do I have any great confidence that any "new economy" is going to find any serious traction for a long time to come.  All I can say is: I placed some bets, and I like how they turned out.

And anyone at any time is free to prove an entirely different thesis.  All you have to do is cite a number, cite a date, and then place your own bet.

V to gOOb below: yes, and that too sums it up well.    

[gOOber]

11% unemployment, family incomes down, growth barely in the positive, exploding debt, but good thing the stock market is good this month.
 

[SamV]

Well, as pointed out by more than one talking head brought in by the early morning "news" shows to discuss the new stock market high, "the Dow doesn't represent the US economy".

Duh! Really? <=== {That's a raspberry; which as a forum emoticon is needed.} 

[pedonbio]

Well, as pointed out by more than one talking head brought in by the early morning "news" shows to discuss the new stock market high, "the Dow doesn't represent the US economy".

Duh! Really? <=== {That's a raspberry; which as a forum emoticon is needed.} 

I've heard the same babbles from talking heads, SamV, and I always have to wonder what these people think the NYSE and its progeny are. The formula for that pesky "Leading Economic Indicator" chart incorporated the Dow about 40 years ago because the Dow has consistently indicated where the U.S. economic trend line will be six months ahead. Unemployment, alas, is and always will be a trailing economic indicator. Once the economy is better, unemployment drops.