[DruulEmpire]

I have some personal interest in how badly I may miss the October 29 prediction I made at the top of this page of this thread, and beyond that I have some interest in the "Clinton bull market high" of somewhere around 11700 and seeing if we'll hang on to it, and I hope all that will play out before Christmas.  For 2011 and beyond, though, I may just leave this go.  If the Dow from 1987 onwards has taught me anything, it's to distrust relatively quick rallies and to just hope for a very slow steady build, which may be excruciating for the CNBC addict but works out for Warren Buffett.

But if there's anything else this thread has taught me, it's that people rarely identify the Big Bomb that will singlehandedly cause the next crash.  I -- and you -- hoped the crash would not be too far below 11111, but then it finally hit 6547.  I've learned that it's fairly typical for people to say "The latest bad news story I saw today is IT, it's the back-breaker, it's all going to fail," over and over again, and yet this thread has confirmed for me that cautious optimism is the best predictor.

[SamV]

Yeah - it's amazing that old Warren has amassed his billions on "old school" type investing, where he puts his money in to stocks and things he understands, and then tends to hold on to them sometimes for decades; as opposed to many who invest in whatever is trendy, or those who try to use "predictive" software on the market, to get in and get out before the market index takes a turn for the worst on them.

The problem is most trendy investors get in when the stock has already been bid up to a ridiculously high share price, and then as reality regarding the company takes hold they end up with a loss.

And as far as the software investment junkies are concerned, the less said the better. But my opinion is they must either live at their PC screen, or have a cell phone permanently attached to their ear, tracking the trend lines on their investments like a hawk. I find neither of these to be any way of life I envy.

[3deroticer]

stimulis tax rebate near April, things went up, then we had the oil spill, and gas price went down and less traveling in order to stop using so much gas, then the economy started going down, and now they are going back up, and unemployment number still the same.

I think something not right when the DOW average climb, yet no hiring to change or reflect the index.

[DruulEmpire]

That's been the case as long as I can remember, 3der -- which is one reason why I rather appreciate an Unemployment Thread that someone started around here, because you really need something like that to account for a vast economic reality NOT reflected (at least not that directly) in the Dow.  Not so long ago, when real life disciples of the "Wall Street" character Gordon Gekko were breaking up companies and selling them and their employees off left and right, it was rather typical financial news to hear "Thousands fired -- stock prices soar."  I think I've said it before, but the Dow is only a gauge of sheer activity -- and not even a complete one, because the number doesn't include the volume of shares traded that day, and it's actually good to cross-check other indices like the NASDAQ.  How sensible that activity is, how good and solid and reliable it will be in the long run, is a whole other issue.

[3deroticer]

I see your point!

If someone started to gauge on what kind of winter we will be having by the color of the woolly caterpillar, someone would catch on and start painting all the caterpillar to change forecast if it would benefit them.

Is this what happening? The rich corporate buying stock of their own company instead of hiring more people to keep the numbers of unemployment high to change election?

[pedonbio]

Shall we just sit and wait for the market to improve?

[DruulEmpire]

to 3der: the "superclass holding back on hiring so as to skew the elections" idea has been put forward by Ed Schultz of MSNBC's "The Ed Show," but I don't give them that much credit, at least when it comes to any winking collusion on a grand scale.  My suspicion is that a lot of them are simply selfish douches who are going to hang onto their trillions for the simple reason that they have the freedom to hang onto their trillions.  Right now Bernanke is trying to get them to open up, so wish him luck.

to bio: Tempting!   But I hope any month now to start a proper stock speculation thread, once I feel done here. 

[DruulEmpire]

Today the market's close crested back above this thread's titular 11111 to hit 11143 -- but I wouldn't mind it gaining at least another 63 points just so we could finally reach a new high for this year.  A year's high set as early as April 26 can be, eh, a little embarrassing.

And to answer old questions a little more definitively: I think I'll semi-retire this particular thread whenever the Dow hits 11776, in honor of the "Clinton bull high" of 11722.98 set on January 14, 2000.

to Shara below: correct!  It honors the tenth millennial anniversary, not only of the Declaration of Independence, but the publication of Adam Smith's "Wealth of Nations."

(Come to think of it -- did ANYTHING happen in the year 1177?)

[Shara]

11776.... I dunno about the clinton bull high, but I think that number is rather iconic for something else

[pedonbio]

11776.... I dunno about the clinton bull high, but I think that number is rather iconic for something else

James Watt's patent on the steam engine?

[Shara]

that too I guess

[gOOber]

 

[DruulEmpire]

Good one, gOOb.  Sadly, I supect that the financial establishment you suggest is so entrenched that your scene will continue to sum things up for years to come.

The good news: as of today, the Dow is up very nearly 70% from where it was in what I call its "O-low" of March 9, 2009.  That was 6547, and it's gained 4571 points since then.

But the bad news, so far as any claim I can make to prophesying goes, is that it still came in 432 points below where I hoped six months ago it would be today.

However, the one previous time I was off, it was simply by a couple more weeks.  So, while I've lost this, I still hold out a hope that we may yet see 11550 -- and in fact, just to be a glutton for punishment, I'm even going to bet on 11667 by Friday December 24, just in time for Christmas.

In 2009 I got to enjoy a little glory.  Now I've got to rely on guts.

VUmmm ... 11118 = 11111 + 7, not 4.  That was the action for that day, though.  It was 11169 on Tuesday.

[Q_BE]

The Dow was hovering around this thread's titular 11111 before it settled up a meager four points @ 11118.49 (+4.54, or 0.04%).

They rightly fear the Fed's power, as do most Americans who are voting on Tuesday.

Q-"When the Fed speaks, the Dow quivers"-BE

[DruulEmpire]

Eh, don't try thinking for yourself, Q, you're out of practice and it shows.

Today, after flirting with this since last Monday during the intra-day, we saw a tiny boost to a new high for 2010, 11215.13.  Of course, I would have preferred this last week, or even a few weeks ago, but I'll take it, and I will continue to root for another 335 points on top of that.