The deadline is getting close. And it's not looking good.
Baseball Think Factory has been keeping track of the publicly announced ballots. With 88 ballots (about 15%, and a statistically valid sample size) in, not one single player has reached the minimum 75% necessary for election:
69.3 - Biggio
67.0 - Bagwell
62.5 - Piazza
61.4 - Raines
61.4 - J. Morris
44.3 - Clemens
44.3 - Bonds
37.5 - Schilling
36.4 - Trammell
35.2 - L. Smith
33.0 - E. Martinez
18.2 - D. Murphy
17.0 - McGriff
15.9 - McGwire
14.8 - Raffy
13.6 - S. Sosa
13.6 - L. Walker
5.7 - Mattingly
Baseball writers have been hashing out the whole PED thing in their articles. Some make a very good case that both Bonds and Clemens
already had HOF-worthy careers
before they were even suspected of using PEDs:
Bonds (1986-1999): .288 BA; 445 HR; 1,299 RBI; 460 Stolen bases. 3 MVP awards (1990, 1992, 1993)
Clemens (1984-1997): 213-118; 2.97 ERA; 2,882 K. 1 MVP award (1986), 4 Cy Young awards (1986, 1991, 1992, 1997)
Matt Snyder over at Eye on Baseball has some good thoughts on Bonds' career and HOF candidacy. He basically asks himself what would he have done in Bonds' position. It's the winter of 1998-1999. In 1998, Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa both destroyed the single season home run record. Bonds, meanwhile, had another awesome season, hitting .308 with 37 HRs, 122 RBIs, and 28 stolen bases. Yet that was only good for
eighth in the NL MVP voting. Eighth. Behind such superstars as Moises Alou, Greg Vaughn, and Andres Galarraga. What if that winter, suggests Snyder, Bonds said to himself,
You know what, I had a helluva season last year, and nobody gave a crap. Nobody. As much as I've complained about McGwire and (Jose) Canseco and all of the bull with steroids, I'm tired of fighting it. I've got three or four good seasons left, and I wanna get paid. I'm just gonna start using some hard-core stuff, and hopefully it won't hurt my body. Then I'll get out of the game and be done with it. (from Jeff Pearlman's book, "Love Me, Hate Me: Barry Bonds and the Making of an Antihero")
Before you say you'd never do that, or everyone was taking PEDs of some sort so it doesn't matter, or other players throughout baseball history cheated - so no big deal, or not one single cheater should be enshrined... well, you (most likely) aren't a professional baseball player.
Let me change it to something perhaps a bit closer to home.
You work with a couple of other guys. Let's call them Tom, Dick, and Harry. You're all about equally good at your job. Or if you're in school, you're all a solid B+ or 3.5 GPA.
Tom is a real brown-noser. It's annoying how he always sucks up to the boss. Volunteers for overtime, runs errands for people, buys donuts for the office... Does everything he can to put himself in a positive light.
Dick might just be a little bit better at work than the rest of you, but he's a real asshole. "Borrows" things from other people's desks, pads his expenses, takes an extra donut or three, is always a few minutes late for everything... Never crosses the line into something you can make an official complaint about, but GOD he's so damn irritating!
Harry, well, Harry seems to be the hardest worker amongst all of you. Then you discover, completely by accident, that he's taking some unusual medication. The drug has a valid use, but Harry's doesn't have whatever the drug is used for. What it does give him is increased alertness, better concentration, and a little more energy. Sure, it's got side effects (let's say things like insomnia and constipation), and there are problems when you stop taking it (how about increased anxiety and occasionally severe headaches), and though there haven't been any studies on the effects of long-term usage of this drug, some medical experts are very concerned... And it's so new that your company's drug policy has absolutely nothing to say about it.
Now let's say that there's an opportunity for a promotion or a bonus coming up. And all four of you are eligible. What do you do?
What do you do?

?
"Wouldn't you at least think about using? Would you use? I can only speak for myself, but my honest answer to the latter question is
I don't have the first damn clue." - Matt Snyder
(Note: That drug Harry's taking? Lots of college students are taking ritalin and other drugs used to treat ADHD to help them study better....
(1) (2) And it's starting to appear in the workplace...)