[mastert]

I think the market will begin to march its way back upward, thinking 12,500-12,650, when the air clears over the next week or two. Companies are still doing pretty good, about 75% making estimates. I think by Thanksgiving, when this debt mess is revisited, we'll hit a very rocky patch, when the actual cuts will go into effect.

I'm just so disgusted. I was going well in the market this year and now I got CRUSHED because of a bunch of teabagger wackos won't budge on ANY taxes.

This country needs to vote ALL of these people out. No jobs bill, no energy plan, jobs continuing to be offshored, nothing. We're here because of 535 selfish people are only worried about winning and losing instead of what the public needs

[DruulEmpire]

mastert, I hope you're right about that upswing -- after all, we were at 12724 just two weeks ago -- but we've still got today to get through.  It's only half past 2 PM and already we've seen some gouges in that 11550 "floor" of mine.  Of course, there's blame to go around, people worry about the global economy and then point to Europe -- but last time I checked, we're part of the globe too.

A 1200 point drop in two weeks.  I  hope some Republican politicians get an earful when they return home.

later: well, that tears it.  We had a long but patient shot at hitting something like 13130, a full double of a low we hit way back in March 2009, but now we've just been dialed clear back to highs we first achieved in the 1900s.  That's right, party like it's 1999 -- except that it's freakin' 2011, so 1999 will not do.  Honestly, how much power of spin does this Tea Party have left in it?

11383 -- congratulations, Boehner and Cantor and McConnell and everyone you kowtowed to.  If there was still a KGB it should have appointed you as generals.  Spin on, Fox, spin on, spin on and on and on ...  

[gOOber]

 

[DruulEmpire]

And so this thread comes full circle.

When I started it three summers ago, I was wondering if the Dow could dip several hundred points to 11111.  (Hence the thread's name.)  It did, and then some.  In those days I could scarcely have anticipated a fall from 14164 all the way to 6547.

Now we're getting hit again, with Congress rather than the White House this time in the role of Herbert Hoover, and my hoped-for "floor" of 11550 got seriously gouged yesterday.  Even today, the high -- the high -- was just slightly above that, at 11555.  And now I hope desperately, all over again, that we can stay above -- you guessed it -- 11111.  Not promising, considering that today we once dipped down to 11139.

So today we are at 11444, and the Chumbawamba Stagcovery marches on.

We're back to highs first set in 1999.  Not at all how I anticipated spending the 21st Century.

 

[pedonbio]

Druul, thank you for taking the week off this thread. It is a week best ignored unless you really like volitility.

[Bad Kitty]

Well, business & commerce is still basically functioning and rebounding, even though there's been a recent 'reset' to hedge investor optimism. But unfortunately the fundamentals of economic health (both in the US and many places abroad) are just not there. National debt, social security funding, and iraq are STILL not fixed from the bush idiocy years... I'm not sure if obamma is just failing himself, or being held back by congress. either way he's been disappointing. I don't think he would have broken everything in the first place like bush did, but I'm not convinced he knows how to fix it.

In a way I liken the overall rise in the stock market (recent rebound notwithstanding) like business investors walking out onto an ice covered lake, and just trying not to think about the popping and creaking sounds.

Which is of course pessimistic sounding, sorry. It may actually just be wishful thinking. Personally I do fantastic when the market is in total chaos. If you know what you're doing and aren't a slow moving dinosaur of an investment group, there's a killing to be made in the rapid up & down movements. I mean, myself I'm tripple my money since 2008. I just sold oil and went heavy into gold a bit ago, and now gold's up $100 and oil is down slightly. I do indeed love volatility. I really miss the big movements of 2008/2009 though.

[madcow4]

Yeah, was thinking about going into Bitcoin, maybe even set up Bitcoin Bazaar on a Tumblr,  selling crap I don't need and buying what I could flip.  Mostly cause of Pawn Stars,  but it sounds like fun.

[DruulEmpire]

Druul, thank you for taking the week off this thread. It is a week best ignored unless you really like volitility.

Ten days after I last posted and we're only up to 11482.

Hey, so long as Bad Kitty is doing well ...

Some guy named Slothower is saying we're about to crash.  Makes me think of a variation on an old joke: "They get a Slothower, but all we ever get is a coffee break."

[DruulEmpire]

Only two months to go, and today's close at 11613 means that we're about 1350 points away from my springtime prediction, so I'm owning up right now to the sizable suspicion that, eh, we probably won't make that after all.  But we shall at least see if we can reclaim any of our ground from July, 12143 at minimum ...  

[DruulEmpire]

The Dow goes up and down hundreds of points nearly everyday now. Who the hell knows where it's going to go? At least we should hope for the best.

Q-"<i>Enough of the Negative Nancies</i>"-BE

Was looking back over this thread, and this jumped out at me.  Funny how he completely dumped this attitude a mere two months later.

How I wish I had given this thread another name.  I was hoping to sink below it but then still steadily rebuild past it.  Today everything dipped down as low as 11117.  How much of this decade will get spent with 11111 as the central line of an ever-fluctuating oscillograph -- and that's if we're relatively lucky?

ADDENDUM: dang, it's a quarter hour into the morning of the 22nd and we just now nearly hit 10800.  This can be a lo-o-ong decade ...

FURTHER ADDENDUM:  A-a-and we ended the 22nd mere points above the low hit back in August.

Time to party like it's 1999 -- April 1999.

[pedonbio]

ADDENDUM: dang, it's a quarter hour into the morning of the 22nd and we just now nearly hit 10800.  This can be a lo-o-ong decade ...

It's all my fault. I retired again.

Hmmm. Back to job hunting.

[DruulEmpire]

So here's how it is: back on May 12, buoyed by having reached 12810 on April 29, I speculated that by no later than this very Halloween day we would be seeing 12960.

Well, it's been a sweet month -- it began with 10655 and as of this writing four weeks late the close may yet hold on to an extra 1300 points since then -- but ever since a resurgence to 12724 on July 21, oddly enough the day we launched our last Space Shuttle, we've just been getting beaten up by Tea Partiers, an uncertain global market, and ever more domestic sluggishness.  Even my vain hope of staying above a floor of 11555 got stomped on until just seven trading days ago, on October 21st.

Scroll back two months to the end of August and you'll find me admitting that this deadline probably wouldn't pay off -- but there have been some sweet moments.  Just not enough.  Indeed, it is not outside the realm of possibility that we could see 12960 by Thanksgiving after all.

But enough conjecture.  I overplayed, I failed -- and as what may be my final prediction for this thread, and in keeping with my stubborn idea that we will indeed see growth, albeit painstakingly gradual, I will set my sights even higher and bet on the 13000 mark -- for Wednesday, 31 October, 2012.  That's right -- exactly one year from today.

I'll just be glad if we can stay above the 11555 floor.  That alone would be a sign of hope.

But do I believe that we will ever see a new all-time high, say 14400?  Sure, maybe -- let's say perhaps in the year 2021.  Who knows, someday I may even choose a date for that.

PS: today, Tues 1 Nov, the market began by hitting 11666.  Crossing my fingers that my "floor" can go one more day ungouged ...

[pedonbio]

This is one reason for the old trader's adage, "Don't fight the market." The market itself can overwhelm any amount of accurate information pointing in the other direction.

[gOOber]

 

[pedonbio]

Finally, a real picture of gOOb!!