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DruulEmpire

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Re: Next Stop Dow 11111
« Reply #540 on: February 03, 2012, 08:47:09 AM »
In this opening quarter hour it hit 12825 -- let's see if it can retain any of that.

addendum: in other news the NASDAQ ascends above 2900 for an 11-year high -- and we just closed out at 12862, just fourteen points shy of rising beyond a 12-month high to easily achieve a three-year high.  Where was a week like this last year?  No matter, just glad it arrived.  Since May 2008 reached as high as 13028, however, all discussion of reaching 13000 remains in the shadow of that month.
« Last Edit: February 03, 2012, 03:22:33 PM by DruulEmpire »

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DruulEmpire

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Re: Next Stop Dow 11111
« Reply #541 on: February 17, 2012, 02:28:47 PM »
A very interesting afternoon -- the intra-day just now hit 12963, finally exceeding the 12960 I wanted for way back on Halloween.  I rather doubt we'll hit 13000 -- though if that looks possible, I've got to think RIGHT NOW about raising my target or making it sooner -- but I'll be back inside of an hour ...

wrap-up: and we closed at 12949.  Monday will bear close watching ...
« Last Edit: February 17, 2012, 03:20:40 PM by DruulEmpire »

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DruulEmpire

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Re: Next Stop Dow 11111
« Reply #542 on: February 23, 2012, 02:56:38 PM »
I said Monday, huh?  Some patriotic follower of Presidents' Day that makes me ... :-[ ;D

So far as the 13000 level is concerned, this week is being a real tease -- but with five minutes left to go, I give up, I'm boosting the Halloween 2012 target from 13000 to 13130.

Don't make me regret this, Dow ... >:( ;)

V to everyone below: just remember, if we do indeed add at least 146 points to yesterday's close (which is itself 767 points above the close at the end of last year) in the next eight months, you heard it here first. ;D

also: Kit, I hear you, but of all the factors that went into 2007-8 I rate "peak oil" news relatively low.  That said, it is something to watch, as I don't think we have another 50 years of relatively smooth sailing at all.  But heck, right now I 'm just looking at the next 50 days or so.
« Last Edit: February 24, 2012, 06:04:38 AM by DruulEmpire »

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mastert

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Re: Next Stop Dow 11111
« Reply #543 on: February 23, 2012, 08:54:29 PM »
Ugggghhhh Druul...that's like mentioning the a pitcher going for a no-hitter in the 8th inning :P

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Bad Kitty

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Re: Next Stop Dow 11111
« Reply #544 on: February 23, 2012, 09:21:07 PM »
Honestly, I'm worried that things will not work out so well as you hope.

I am kinda expecting the price of oil to do something similar to what happened in 2008 as we head into summer. Everyone talks about bank deregulation, and globalized economic issues... but "peak oil" was a factor in the crash in 2008. Well, more accurately, speculation on the impending reality of peak oil. But I think it's going to get less speculative now. With a US embargo on iranian oil, and a less serious european embargo as well, I forsee peak oil rearing it's ugly head again as we head into higher consumption months this year.

The 2008 recession nuked consumption of oil, which really staved off peak oil for a little while. But it's not an issue that will go away. Even with reduced consumption, and increased govt. approval of things like frakking and offshore drilling in previously disallowed areas, the rate of global oil production is still slipping downward, towards it's meeting point with the rate of consumption.

It's not an issue of running out of oil, that's a good 50 years off still... But, bear in mind that in 50 years, that last gallon of gas will cost a million dollars. The thing with peak oil, is to see a situation where the max capacity of global oil production, falls to a point below the level of global oil consumption. When (not 'if') that happens, the market will shift from a buyers market for oil, to a sellers market for oil, as consumers must leverage their wealth against other consumers' wealth to get the oil they want.

Imagine a room with 100 people selling a snowcone, and 99 people buying a snowcone... snowcones are fairly cheap, because nobody wants to be the one seller who doesn't close the deal. Now imagine a room with 99 people selling a snowcone, and 100 people buying snowcones... the whole dynamic is turned inside out. Of course people don't NEED a snowcone, and nobody NEEDS to sell a snowcone that badly... but if selling some oil is vital to one nation's economy, and buying some oil is vital to another nation's economy... then in a buyer's market, the competition to sell the oil is fierce. But in a sellers market, the competition to buy the oil will be fierce instead. It's gonna do really bad things to the price of petrol energy, and really soon. I would think that without Iran issues, it might not hit till 2013, but with the embargo (which basically changes the shape of the room where snowcones are sold), oil supply is gonna get really close to oil demand, and may fall below it.

So... yeah. I'd buy oil as a hedge. Or just buy oil flat out. If the price of oil spikes, all the other markets will take a noticeable dip (except for recession-loving items, like gold, walmart, ramen noodles, etc). I could be wrong about it getting 'severe' this summer. but i'm sure there will be at least some swell in oil prices, the northern hemisphere simply burns more oil in summer, and oil prices are already kinda 'bling' right now, when consumption is lower.


But I've been really focused on just gold, oil, and money markets. black & yellow gold have been my bread & butter, and the money markets are really just kind of a sliding reference to truly quantify how my bread & butter are doing ;) I haven't followed other aspects of the market that closely. I seem to do really well moving money around in those particular markets though.
« Last Edit: February 23, 2012, 09:30:37 PM by Bad Kitty »
gnothi seauton / fortes fortuna adiuvat
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pedonbio

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Re: Next Stop Dow 11111
« Reply #545 on: February 25, 2012, 03:28:44 AM »
I dunno. The price of gas is purely a speculative bubble this time--Supply is way up into surplus and demand is down from a year ago. Usually these things spike for a while, then collapse faster than it rose. Unfortunately, the retail prices drops a lot more slowly than the wholesale price.
Someday, chi1dren, this entire fuck-up will be yours.

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Bad Kitty

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Re: Next Stop Dow 11111
« Reply #546 on: February 25, 2012, 07:00:56 PM »
I dunno. The price of gas is purely a speculative bubble this time--Supply is way up into surplus and demand is down from a year ago. Usually these things spike for a while, then collapse faster than it rose. Unfortunately, the retail prices drops a lot more slowly than the wholesale price.

yeah, i don't see any risk of global peak oil in 2012, but embargos could make things bad here. 2013 will be more interesting (depending on demand of course). we've never pumped as much oil as we did in 2006 though. we're kinda hiding "peak oil" inside a recession of reduced consumption.
gnothi seauton / fortes fortuna adiuvat
I'm into both Real Life and Fantasy BE, and Sexual Exaggeration in general (among many other things).
I have somewhat exotic body modding plans for myself for RL ;)
I do the 'Bad Kitty' morphs, here and elsewhere.
(I'm not a huge "morph-request" person, I spend a loooong time on them, and I do them primarily for my own enjoyment. Its hard enough to find time to do all the morphs i want to do)

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DruulEmpire

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Re: Next Stop Dow 11111
« Reply #547 on: February 28, 2012, 03:20:14 PM »
Today closed at 13005 -- three trading days after I decided to raise my target above 13000.

And ... scene. 8)

(Now all I need is another 125 points in the next eight months ... )

V to Kit below: well, basically ... ;D

(speaking of which, US Census says our population will soon hit 313,131,313) :o
« Last Edit: February 29, 2012, 03:04:56 PM by DruulEmpire »

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Bad Kitty

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Re: Next Stop Dow 11111
« Reply #548 on: February 29, 2012, 02:06:10 PM »
going for 13,131?

before 12-21-2012?

:P
gnothi seauton / fortes fortuna adiuvat
I'm into both Real Life and Fantasy BE, and Sexual Exaggeration in general (among many other things).
I have somewhat exotic body modding plans for myself for RL ;)
I do the 'Bad Kitty' morphs, here and elsewhere.
(I'm not a huge "morph-request" person, I spend a loooong time on them, and I do them primarily for my own enjoyment. Its hard enough to find time to do all the morphs i want to do)

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pedonbio

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Re: Next Stop Dow 11111
« Reply #549 on: March 13, 2012, 06:38:48 PM »
going for 13,131?

before 12-21-2012?

:P

Yes. It has been achieved. Now Druul speculates that it may stay above 13,131 for the rest of the year. He is an optimist.
Someday, chi1dren, this entire fuck-up will be yours.

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DruulEmpire

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Re: Next Stop Dow 11111
« Reply #550 on: March 13, 2012, 07:26:26 PM »
Let's put it this way -- I'm changing my original bet of "achieving 13130 by October's end" (since that's already happened with today's close of 13177) to "staying at or above 13130 by October's end."

It's not exactly optimism, since I figure I could very easily get kicked in the teeth yet again.  It's just something I'd like to see.

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DruulEmpire

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Re: Next Stop Dow 11111
« Reply #551 on: May 20, 2012, 02:30:45 AM »
Well, this month thus far sure has sucked, huh? ;D

Neo-con economic advisors get us both ways: even if and when we can free our own economy from them, we still have to worry about their impact on economies overseas. ::)

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pedonbio

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Re: Next Stop Dow 11111
« Reply #552 on: May 25, 2012, 06:48:36 PM »
Well, this month thus far sure has sucked, huh? ;D

Neo-con economic advisors get us both ways: even if and when we can free our own economy from them, we still have to worry about their impact on economies overseas. ::)

It was yet another week that made me glad I'm not an insider.
Someday, chi1dren, this entire fuck-up will be yours.

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TysonWarm

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Re: Next Stop Dow 11111
« Reply #553 on: May 25, 2012, 08:37:03 PM »
Does anybody have an idea what the bottom # for the Dow is on this running bear market? I would say it will go no lower than 11,500.  But, maybe it could drop to 11,111.

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DruulEmpire

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Re: Next Stop Dow 11111
« Reply #554 on: May 28, 2012, 06:22:38 AM »
Ty, I'll second your 11,111 suggestion -- it is after all the title of this thread. ;D  Luckily we haven't been there since October -- but there's a lot of overseas drama going on now, and that can always sucker punch ya.

That's a magnificent pic but I find the bear rather unnecessarily scary.  I'd go with a hibernator.